Home / NFL key numbers
NFL key numbers: how often games land on every margin
Final margins in the NFL bunch up on a few numbers because points come in 3s and 7s. Knowing how often each one hits tells you what a spread is really worth, when a half point is worth buying and which teasers make sense. Counted from all 3,147 NFL games from 2015 through November 1, 2026, updated daily.
Since 2015, 14.9% of games were decided by exactly 3 points and 8.7% by exactly 7. No other margin reaches 8%. 2015 is when the extra point moved back to the 15-yard line, which made margins of 6, 7, 10 and 14 a little different from before.
How often each final margin happens
| Final margin | % of games | Decided by this or less |
|---|---|---|
| 0 (tie) | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 4.4% | 4.7% |
| 2 | 4.6% | 9.3% |
| 3 | 14.9% | 24.2% |
| 4 | 4.7% | 28.9% |
| 5 | 4.4% | 33.3% |
| 6 | 7.1% | 40.4% |
| 7 | 8.7% | 49.1% |
| 8 | 4.3% | 53.4% |
| 9 | 1.7% | 55.1% |
| 10 | 4.7% | 59.8% |
| 11 | 2.1% | 61.9% |
| 12 | 1.9% | 63.8% |
| 13 | 2.0% | 65.8% |
| 14 | 5.1% | 70.9% |
| 15 | 1.6% | 72.5% |
| 16 | 2.4% | 74.9% |
| 17 | 3.5% | 78.4% |
| 18 | 2.2% | 80.6% |
| 19 | 1.1% | 81.8% |
| 20 | 2.0% | 83.8% |
| 21 | 2.2% | 86.0% |
NFL push chart: every spread from 1 to 14
For each closing spread: how often the game landed exactly on the number (a push), how often the favorite covered, and how often the favorite won outright. The fair moneyline is what that win rate is worth with no bookmaker margin. Highlighted rows push 7% of the time or more.
| Spread | Push | Favorite covers | Favorite wins | Fair favorite ML | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −1 | 0.9% | 49.4% | 50.3% | -101 | 322 |
| −2 | 2.9% | 48.3% | 53.6% | -118 | 522 |
| −3 | 10.3% | 44.2% | 60.4% | -154 | 455 |
| −4 | 2.8% | 46.3% | 61.9% | -164 | 575 |
| −5 | 2.2% | 44.4% | 66.5% | -200 | 322 |
| −6 | 5.1% | 46.1% | 71.1% | -248 | 432 |
| −7 | 7.5% | 45.1% | 76.6% | -332 | 495 |
| −8 | 2.6% | 45.1% | 74.4% | -291 | 266 |
| −9 | 0.8% | 44.3% | 77.7% | -351 | 479 |
| −10 | 2.9% | 42.1% | 78.3% | -367 | 309 |
| −11 | 0.7% | 46.7% | 82.6% | -474 | 270 |
| −12 | 1.3% | 48.6% | 84.6% | -551 | 319 |
| −13 | 4.2% | 50.2% | 86.6% | -646 | 261 |
| −14 | 5.2% | 45.6% | 86.8% | -655 | 287 |
Spreads with fewer than 250 games borrow from the half points next to them. For a single number, a few hundred games still leaves a margin of error of a few percent.
What half a point is worth
Buying half a point costs you price. This table shows, for an underdog at each closing spread, how much more often the bet wins (counting a push as half a win) when you move it half a point, and the most you could pay for that half point and do no worse than the original line at −110. If your book charges less than that, buying is worth it. Highlighted rows are worth paying −125 or more for.
| Move | Extra wins | Worth paying up to |
|---|---|---|
| +1 → +1.5 | 0.5% | -112 |
| +1.5 → +2 | 1.1% | -116 |
| +2 → +2.5 | 1.4% | -116 |
| +2.5 → +3 | 3.5% | -129 |
| +3 → +3.5 | 5.2% | -135 |
| +3.5 → +4 | 1.7% | -119 |
| +4 → +4.5 | 1.4% | -116 |
| +4.5 → +5 | 1.1% | -115 |
| +5 → +5.5 | 1.1% | -114 |
| +5.5 → +6 | 1.7% | -118 |
| +6 → +6.5 | 2.5% | -121 |
| +6.5 → +7 | 3.4% | -130 |
| +7 → +7.5 | 3.7% | -127 |
| +7.5 → +8 | 1.4% | -117 |
| +8 → +8.5 | 1.3% | -116 |
| +8.5 → +9 | 0.3% | -111 |
| +9 → +9.5 | 0.4% | -112 |
| +9.5 → +10 | 1.7% | -118 |
| +10 → +10.5 | 1.5% | -116 |
| +10.5 → +11 | 0.4% | -112 |
The same applies to favorites in reverse: moving −3.5 to −3, or −7.5 to −7, is the valuable half point. Check any line in the bet checker.
Key numbers for totals
The most common combined scores since 2015 are 51 (3.8%), 44 (3.7%), 40 (3.6%), 43 (3.5%), 41 (3.5%), 37 (3.4%), 47 (3.2%), 33 (2.9%), 48 (2.7%), 46 (2.6%). Even the most common total only happens about 4% of the time, so a half point on a total is worth much less than a half point on a spread near 3 or 7. Paying extra to buy points on totals is rarely worth it.
What this means for teasers
A 6-point teaser is only worth it when the 6 points cross both 3 and 7. That's an underdog of +1.5 to +2.5 moving to +7.5 to +8.5, or a favorite of −7.5 to −8.5 moving to −1.5 to −2.5. Teasing a −3 favorite to +3, or a +7 underdog to +13, moves the line across numbers games rarely land on, and those legs have lost money. Check a teaser.
Data: nflverse closing lines and final scores, regular season and playoffs. Snap Theory is a research site; we don't take bets or sell picks. 21+.