Have a betting rule you trust, like "home underdogs in the playoffs"? Build it on the left and see how it has done at the real closing line, season by season, and whether the record is better than luck. Most rules aren't, and it's better to find that out here than with your bankroll.
Uses closing lines. 1 unit is risked per bet at the listed odds; spread and total bets before 2006 assume −110. Pushes return the stake. The "luck check" is a one-sided test of whether average profit per bet is above zero. Past results don't guarantee future results. Data: nflverse. Games through .
Pick a bet type (spread, moneyline or total), a side and any filters. We apply that rule to every NFL game in the data and grade each bet against the closing line, the last price before kickoff. Step-by-step guide.
Compare your win rate with the break-even rate shown under it: at -110 odds you need 52.4% just to break even. Units are profit when risking 1 unit per bet; ROI is profit per unit risked. Why 52.4%?
The chance a strategy with no real edge would do at least this well. Small samples and heavily filtered rules often look great by luck alone, so treat anything above 5% with suspicion. Skill or luck?
Every game and closing line since 1999 from the open-source nflverse project. Moneylines and actual spread and total prices start in 2006; earlier spread and total bets are graded at -110. Lines explained.